(Photo: Clutchpoints)
AFC Wild Card
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Dolphins: They are the 2023-24 version of the New York Giants and as always, I will explain what I mean. Last year’s Giants had a winning record and they were a playoff team. They could beat the teams they were supposed to beat, but in order to be considered a contender, you must beat the other teams with winning records and they didn’t do that. The same could be applied to these Miami Dolphins as well. Yes, they beat the teams they were supposed to beat, but when it came to facing the quality opponents, they struggled only beating one team with a winning record this year. They were in a prime position to win the AFC East and looked to be taking control of the division, especially with the Buffalo Bills reeling at one time. I didn’t like the way they closed out the season. They barely got by the Dallas Cowboys, the Baltimore Ravens embarrassed them on New Year’s Eve and in the season finale on Sunday night against the Bills, they looked to be in control of the game, then ended up being punched in the mouth in the second half and ended up losing the game which would’ve awarded them the division title for the first time since 2008. They’re back in the playoffs once again as a Wild Card team for the second consecutive season. This is a football team that wants to turn games into a track meet. When a team can establish the tempo of the game in their favor, it usually works out for them and that’s their identity. Mike McDaniel has become one of the best play callers in the league. At the beginning, I compared them to one team, I can compare them to someone else. I see a lot of those Colts teams with Peyton Manning in these Dolphins. They were a speedy group that didn’t like physicality. They will begin the playoffs on the road this Saturday night.
Chiefs: It wasn’t the typical run away with the AFC West type of year as we’ve seen in previous seasons. When Patrick Mahomes became the starting Quarterback and you saw what he is capable of doing on the field, this became the most electrifying offense in the league. They had the three-headed monster of Patrick, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill which was a nightmare for any defense to defend. As of late, I found myself saying there’s an imbalance when it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs and what I mean by that is they are always stronger on one side of the football than the other. For years, the offense has been the strong point and has shouldered the load for this team. They didn’t need the defense to necessarily be lights out, all they needed to do was get off the field and get the ball back to the offense and they’d handle the rest. This season, the offense was actually struggling and the defense has been the strong point and one of the best units in the league. Do you all remember when Chris Jones held out in the opening game against the Detroit Lions? You saw how missed he was. When he’s on the field, they’re a completely different unit. These are words I never thought I’d see myself saying to you. Their offense doesn’t scare as it once did. Yeah, they still have one of the best Quarterbacks in the league without question, but be real with yourself here. Outside of Travis Kelce, who on this receiving core scares you? They don’t have that downfield threat anymore to go over the top of the coverage. I won’t rule them out completely because they do have a two-time Super Bowl champion and league MVP. They’ll start the defense of their title on Saturday night.
Dolphins X-Factor: Justin Houston– The Dolphins defense is decimated with injuries. Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles and just a few weeks ago, Bradley Chubb tore his ACL. Those are your top two pass rushers there. Miami also lost Andrew Van Ginkel and Cam Goode. They signed both Bruce Irwin and Justin Houston. Justin is a veteran who knows this Chiefs team very well as he once played for them. They don’t need him to be lights out, all they need is for him to apply pressure and make a few tackles here and there.
Chiefs X-Factor: Mecole Hardman– He could be the guy that can spark up this passing attack for the Chiefs offense. With so many teams putting their focus on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mecole will see his share of one on ones. He’s a shifty receiver with the ability to make people miss in the open field. Out of every receiver on the depth chart, he’s played the longest with Mahomes. The Chiefs can get him the ball on jew sweeps, screen passes and Mecole has the speed to impact the game and make a defense miss.
Final Thoughts: This is one of the two games I’m looking forward too on the schedule this weekend. We finally get the return of Tyreek Hill to Arrowhead. These two met during the regular season in Germany and the Chiefs survived with a seven point victory. The weather will be a major factor in this game as it is expected to be below freezing at kickoff. This is January football at its finest! Miami is a team that likes to turn games into a track meet and when you play teams such as that, you want to ugly the football game up as much as possible. The Bills did just that in the second half of their game against Miami on Sunday night and the Chiefs will need to do the same thing. I expect them to establish that running game to help open up the passing game for Mahomes and company. I expect McDaniel to be aggressive early on and try everything to turn this into a shootout which will favor the Dolphins. When they met back in November, the Chiefs won with a simple formula. Solid defense and just enough offense. That will carry them to a victory here on Saturday night.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 14
