(Photo: Cosm)
AFC Wild Card
(6) Buffalo Bills at (3) Jacksonville Jaguars
Bills (12-5):
Their streak of AFC East division titles came to an end this season, courtesy of the New England Patriots, who claimed the division for the first time since 2019. The Bills had moments where they looked like one of the four or five best teams in the NFL, only to falter shortly after. Those lapses were frustrating, especially given how talented this roster is. At times, they struggled far more than a team of this caliber should. Their best performance came against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I love when this team plays the role of the bully—establishing a physical tone early and imposing their will. One lingering issue, however, is the same one I pointed out yesterday with the Chicago Bears: slow starts. Too often, the Bills stall for an entire half before flipping the switch in the second half. Watching them “turn it on” only when they feel like it is head-shaking. There’s been a trending narrative around this team: this might be their best shot to win it all because there’s no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson in their way. When I was on The Prime, I was asked whether Josh Allen hears that noise. I said I’m sure he’s heard some of it—but he can’t focus on that. It’s one game at a time. If I’m in that locker room, I’m telling him to focus on what’s directly in front of you and be the guy who won MVP last year. This team isn’t here without him. This Sunday afternoon, the Bills begin their postseason run in Duval.
Jaguars (13-4):
This season reminds me a lot of their 2022 campaign—coming out of left field and surprising everyone. Prior to the season, the AFC South was viewed as the Houston Texans’ division to lose, and quite frankly, the entire division ended up being must-watch football. The Indianapolis Colts jumped out to a strong start and, at one point, held the best record in the AFC. The Texans began 0–3, regrouped, and ripped off nine consecutive wins. And then, of course, you had the team from Duval County. I’ll admit, I didn’t know what to expect from Jacksonville with first-year head coach Liam Coen and an up-and-down quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I give Coen all the credit in the world—he’s instilled a new culture within this organization and deserves to be a Coach of the Year candidate after winning 13 games in his first season and leading the Jaguars to the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. I’ve watched Trevor Lawrence since his days at Clemson, and this is the year he finally looked like the quarterback he was supposed to be coming out of college. Most importantly, he played with more control than ever—no forcing throws, no pressing, and far fewer turnover-worthy decisions. Coen has shown that balance is still king in this sport, and this team has benefited greatly from that philosophy. This is a football team with a balanced offense and a defense that plays extremely well as a collective unit. They’re fun to watch, and I can’t wait to see where they go from here. The Jaguars will kick off Day 2 of Super Wild Card Weekend on Sunday afternoon.
Bills X-Factor: Dalton Kincaid
Alongside Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid has become one of Josh Allen’s top reads. He’s one of the shiftier tight ends in the league today. First and foremost, he’s a pressure valve for Josh. When the Jaguars generate pressure on No. 17, Kincaid becomes the quick answer—whether that’s option routes, sitting down in soft spots in coverage, or working up the seam to keep drives alive. Dalton will also be a factor in the red zone, especially on play-action and broken plays. Jacksonville’s linebackers and safeties have struggled against athletic tight ends, and that’s exactly what Kincaid brings to the table.
Jaguars X-Factor: Travon Walker
This Sunday, the Jaguars’ defense will face a Bills offense that thrives on broken plays, with Josh Allen buying time and extending plays with his legs. Jacksonville selected Travon Walker first overall in the 2022 draft out of Georgia, and he’s the guy I’ll be watching closely. At 6’5”, Walker can impact the game with his length alone—getting his hands up, tipping passes, and disrupting throwing lanes. Buffalo will also use bootlegs and movement to get Josh on the edge, making Travon’s ability to set the edge and avoid over-pursuing absolutely crucial. If Walker and the Jaguars’ front can consistently make Josh uncomfortable, this defense can build real momentum.
Final Thoughts:
Outside of Packers–Bears, this is the game I’ve been looking forward to most, and I’m glad I finally had the chance to break it down. The Bills will begin the postseason on the road for the first time since 2019, when they fell short in Houston against the Texans in the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are hosting a playoff game for the first time in over three years. Jacksonville has always played Buffalo tough—especially at home—and the Bills haven’t won a game in Jacksonville since 2013. For Buffalo, winning the middle of the field is critical. That starts with James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir stressing the Jaguars’ linebackers in space. Josh Allen must play smart—take the checkdowns, avoid late throws across the field, and finish drives in the red zone. Settling for field goals keeps the door open. On the other side, the Jaguars must make Josh Allen play patient. Two-high looks, rallying to the ball, and forcing mistakes are key. Winning with the edge rushers is essential. When you play Buffalo, containing No. 17 is priority number one. If Jacksonville can pressure him without blitzing, keep coverage intact, and eliminate the middle of the field, this game will be tight until the very end. This one should have all of us on the edge of our seats.
