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Intriguing Game- NFL, Week 12

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Bills (7-3):

It’s been a different year for them. Since 2020, they’ve dominated the AFC East and won the division each season, along with multiple playoff appearances and two trips to the AFC Championship Game. At one point this season, they were a 4–0 football team that looked to be on cruise control. I won’t deny the fact that this is still a good football team, but they now sit in second place, looking up at the surging New England Patriots—who happen to own the tiebreaker against them. As they entered Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I was curious to see how they would respond, especially after dropping the ball and embarrassing themselves the week before against Miami. I always focus on how you respond to adversity, not the adversity itself—and they responded with a big win on Sunday. With their backs against the wall and many people doubting them, they needed their key players to step up, and that’s exactly what Josh Allen did. He put the team on his back and took over, accounting for six total touchdowns (three passing and three rushing). With New England not letting up, every game is crucial for the Bills. What concerns me is their defense—especially their struggles against the run—and teams are attacking that weekly. Tonight, they kick off Week 12 in Houston against an underwhelming opponent this year.

Texans (5-5):

I’ll just come out and say it: they’ve been disappointing this year, and it’s been tough to watch. When they made their offseason moves a year ago, many claimed they were climbing the AFC ladder and could compete with the Kansas City Chiefs. I said, “Hold on—let’s not go that far.” They had owned the AFC South for the previous two seasons and were a favorite to win it again, but I doubt that happens this year with the Indianapolis Colts dominating. This defense has kept them in games. I even said on The Prime this Tuesday that when you give up so few points, you should expect to win. I still remember Week 1 against the Rams—holding a Sean McVay offense to 14 points—but the Texans offense scored only 9. That’s the problem right there. Their offense hasn’t matched the consistency of their defense, and it’s exactly why Houston is in its current position. C.J. Stroud has regressed, the offensive line has struggled, and most importantly, the offense misses Joe Mixon, who has been battling injuries all year. Don’t blame the defense—they’ve shown up and shown out. On The Prime, I also mentioned that this offense has looked a bit more fluid under Davis Mills, and David Onpoint agreed with me. At 5–5, they’re on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff picture. They welcome the reigning MVP and the Buffalo Bills tonight for another edition of Thursday Night Football.

Bills X-Factor: Khalil Shakir

It’s incredible how much chemistry he’s built with Josh Allen. Khalil has become an additional safety valve for the quarterback. He can stretch the field, create separation against any secondary, and if Josh connects with him early, Houston will be forced to adjust coverages—and against this Texans defense, every extra yard matters. Shakir can line up wide or in the slot, and his agility makes him dangerous. I’d use him creatively to keep the Houston defense guessing.

Texans X-Factor: Woody Marks

He’s stepped up nicely for this Houston offense and has filled Joe Mixon’s role well in his absence. Woody is a dual-threat running back who catches the ball as effectively as he runs it. With the Bills struggling to defend the run—especially against backs who can do damage both ways—I expect the Texans to use him often. With Woody on the field, the Texans average 6.2 yards per play, compared to 4.3 without him.

Final Thoughts:

When these two met last season, it ended up being the worst game of Josh Allen’s career, as he completed only 9 of 30 pass attempts. The wild thing is the Texans still only won by three. Now, over a year later, this matchup holds major importance in the playoff race. Can the Bills build off their big Week 11 win? Can the Texans keep themselves hovering around the playoff picture? For Buffalo, it’s key to establish James Cook early. He is the most important piece of this offense. When he’s fed the ball consistently, he builds momentum, and an effective run game keeps Houston off-balance and opens up red-zone opportunities. Use a mix of Cook, short passes, and gadget plays to confuse the defense, limit turnovers, and take care of the ball. For Houston, protecting Davis Mills from this Bills pass rush is essential—they’ll be aggressive from the start. Establish Woody Marks and the run game. As mentioned earlier, the Bills have struggled to defend the run, and exploiting that weakness not only helps Houston move the ball but also keeps Josh Allen on the sideline while creating mismatches in the passing game. The winner of this game will be in much better shape as the postseason picture continues to form.

Prediction:

Bills 27, Texans 17