AFC Divisional Playoff
(3) Buffalo Bills at (2) Kansas City Chiefs
Bills: Last Saturday was the best I’ve ever seen them look. That was as perfectly executed of a game plan as I’ve seen. Each time they had the ball, they were either moving it up the field or they were scoring. I was even saying on the radio last night when you play man coverage, you must account for everyone. When the Patriots played it, they forgot about one guy and that’s Josh Allen. He was dynamic with his feet and making throws from the pocket in frigid temperatures as if it were nothing. The offensive line played downhill and they were able to run the football. The defense also came to play. It was a perfect display of football all around. I can admit I’ve been skeptical of the Buffalo Bills throughout the year. Oftentimes, I’ve found myself saying they’ve been too dependent on Josh Allen and they haven’t run the ball consistently enough. Also, this was the same team at one point during the season that lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars of all teams. What changed the dynamic of their season was the win in Foxboro against the Patriots. They lose that, they aren’t in line to clinch the division once again. The defense has also been on top of its game this year. Whenever those old-school franchises are doing well, I always think it’s good for the league. On Sunday evening, they will face the team that eliminated them from advancing to the Super Bowl.
Chiefs: This has been a different year for them. If you look back to the first three years with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback, the success came to them so easily. They wouldn’t have to break a sweat at certain times and the game would come to them. It wasn’t quite like that necessarily this season. This was the first time I can say they were battle-tested and now, they’re a better football team because of the rough moments they’ve endured. I’ve been saying it throughout the year and said at the beginning of the year that teams had figured out how to limit the Kansas City offense. Tampa Bay unveiled the blueprint and other teams have added their twist to it. Keep those safeties deep, play tight underneath with coverage, and force them to earn everything under, nothing over the top. Now, Patrick is taking what defenses are giving him. Yes, his first two reads will always be Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. When defenses limit them, it allows Patrick to use the other weapons. He’s dumping the ball to the flat and getting the ball to receivers on screen passes. The defense may still be a question mark, but they’ve come a long way as well. No defense is successful without communication as I said last week. Another trip to the AFC Title Game is on the line and they will have to bring down the Bills to advance.
Bills X-Factor: Dawson Knox– Many big names are playing the tight end position so it’s understandable as to why he’d fly under the radar. Dawson’s as key of a piece to this offense as some of the others. Josh feeds him the ball as often as he can and when he has it, he’s either converting the chains or scoring. He’s that mismatch over the middle and in space. The Bills are a scarier offense when they find ways to get Dawson the ball.
Chiefs X-Factor: Chris Jones– You paid him that massive contract for games such as this. When he’s healthy, Chris is a top-three defensive tackle. The acquisition of Melvin Ingram was a blessing because it allowed Chris to play in his natural spot which is the interior of the defensive line. Just the other day on the “NerdZone”, I said more pass rushers are coming from the inside. They’ve been able to generate pressure and get home to the quarterback. He must lead the charge against that Bills’ offense. Don’t let Allen have all day to throw the ball.
Final Thoughts: When I recorded Monday Evening Quarterback, two things came to mind about this matchup. First, I see many people are calling this the AFC Title Game and I don’t disagree with them one bit. Next, I said the winner of this game will represent the conference in the Super Bowl. These two have seen quite a bit of each other. They played in week five this season and Buffalo beat them. It wasn’t a stunner that came down to the final quarter. The Bills punched the Chiefs in the mouth and that’s when I became more concerned with Kansas City. Months later, the Chiefs’ defense is much improved. It’s so crucial for the Chiefs to apply pressure on Allen as early and often as they can. Throw different looks at him. Make him a pocket passer. When he runs, that sparks up the entire offense. The Bills will probably use the same strategy they did the last time. They won’t blitz and you’ll see many two-high shells up top to limit the Chiefs vertical passing game. Not having Tre’Davious White means the Buffalo safeties are needed to protect the cornerbacks. This one will come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes.
Prediction: Chiefs 33, Bills 28
