(Photo: Clutchpoints) 

College Football Playoff- Semifinals 

(5) Oregon Ducks at (1) Indiana Hoosiers 

Oregon (13-1): 

They must’ve heard what I said about them after their first-round win against the James Madison Dukes. In case you missed it, all I stated was that they didn’t play up to their full potential because they let their opponent hang around. When I saw the Texas Tech Red Raiders were up next, I said to myself that this could turn into a shootout and that Oregon matched up well with them—especially offensively, with how they can punch back and go score for score. I definitely wasn’t expecting the results to be what they were. Believe me, I had Oregon winning this game, but not in the fashion they did—and I loved every second of it. The Oregon Ducks are largely responsible for the best offensive and defensive performances of the entire playoff. They scored 51 points and recorded over 500 yards of total offense in the first round, and against Texas Tech, the defense came ready to play. They held one of the more prolific offenses in the country to 200 rushing yards, pressured Behren Morton all game, never gave him time to throw, and forced four turnovers. If you said the Orange Bowl was the best game Oregon played all year, you wouldn’t get any disagreement from me. They were locked in and shut down an offense capable of scoring on just about anybody. There’s nothing better than when a game plan comes together even better than anticipated. Tonight, the Ducks look to make their second appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship game.

Indiana (14-0): 

They just continue to pass every test thrown their way, and at this point, you have to respect it. They weren’t given much of a chance against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 6, yet they exposed the defending national champions. On New Year’s Day, they made their playoff debut against the Alabama Crimson Tide after not playing for over 20 days. When you’re off that long, rust can show early—and it did—but they settled in. This team is a true reflection of its head coach, Curt Cignetti. It’s a hard-nosed, disciplined group that knows how to handle business. In the Rose Bowl, the Hoosiers defeated Alabama in a fashion reminiscent of how the Tide used to dominate opponents during the Nick Saban era. What stands out most about this Indiana team is its balance. They can finish a game with 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing while picking their spots offensively. Against Alabama, Indiana totaled 215 rushing yards, while Fernando Mendoza completed 14 of his 16 pass attempts for 192 yards and three touchdowns—yes, more touchdown passes than incompletions. Their efficiency also shows on third down, converting 56 percent of their attempts. Tonight, they look to keep the momentum going in a rematch with Oregon in the Peach Bowl.

Oregon X-Factor: Kenyon Sadiq

When I previewed the regular-season meeting between these two teams, Kenyon Sadiq was my X-factor—and he’s once again the player I’ll be watching closely. He’s a wide receiver trapped in a tight end’s body. If Oregon can get him involved early and often, it will bode well for the Ducks’ offense. Indiana’s defense is built to limit explosive plays on the outside, and Sadiq’s size, speed, and ability to win in space—especially against linebackers and safeties—make him a matchup problem. If he contributes consistently, he’ll help keep the Oregon offense on schedule.

Indiana X-Factor: Roman Hemby

Indiana’s offense is full of playmakers, and Roman Hemby is one of the most important. It may seem like they want to throw the ball with Mendoza finding Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt, but their balance is the primary reason for their success. Hemby rushed for over 1,000 yards this season, and his early carries help the Hoosiers stay balanced and avoid becoming one-dimensional. Feeding him the ball also keeps Oregon’s offense on the sideline, and sustained drives will be critical in limiting Oregon’s opportunities. Hemby is a downhill runner, and in postseason football, that physicality can go a long way.

Final Thoughts:

These two teams met on October 11 during the regular season in a matchup of undefeated programs. Nobody—including myself—gave Indiana much of a chance, considering the game was in Eugene, where Oregon traditionally plays extremely well. This was one of those moments when a doubted team had to prove itself, and the Hoosiers did exactly that, leaving Eugene with a victory I considered Fernando Mendoza’s “Heisman moment.” Months later, here we are again, with a trip to the National Championship game on January 19 looming. In the first meeting, Oregon’s defense played well, holding Mendoza to 215 passing yards and keeping Indiana’s ground game in check. Tonight, the Ducks must win early downs—especially on defense—because if Indiana controls tempo and stays ahead of the chains, Oregon’s offense could spend too much time on the sideline. Expect Oregon to load the box early to test Indiana. Offensively, they must attack the middle of the field with Sadiq, slot receivers, and motion mismatches. The offensive line must also be better than it was in the first meeting, when Indiana consistently got pressure on Dante Moore. For Indiana, it starts with balance. That’s why they’re here, and there’s no reason to go away from it. Let Roman Hemby dictate the tempo and pace by staying ahead of the chains. If he gets going, the Hoosiers will control the clock and flow of the game. Lastly, Indiana must win the line of scrimmage—creating push in the run game and handling Oregon’s edge speed defensively. If we get anything close to what we saw last night, we’re in for a treat.

Prediction:

Indiana 27, Oregon 23