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College Football Playoff- First Round

(10) Miami Hurricanes at (7) Texas A&M Aggies

Miami (10-2):

Okay, we can say I’m somewhat of a curse. I remember after their win against the Florida State Seminoles during the regular season, I came to this site and wrote my thoughts on this football team, even going as far as to say they were the best team in the nation at that point. Less than a week later, they were upset by the Louisville Cardinals—despite being ranked No. 2 in the country. Entering this season, I was very curious to see what we’d get from the Miami offense, especially after it finished ranked first in the nation in many statistical categories a year ago. I’ve always said that Miami’s success this season was predicated on the play of quarterback Carson Beck. If they got “Good Carson,” they’d win football games. If “Bad Carson” showed up, they’d lose. There’s truly no in-between—when he’s good, he’s very good, but when he struggles, he really struggles. That said, this has been Miami’s most complete season under Mario Cristobal, pairing a top-16 offense with a top-10 defense. Speaking of the defense, it’s a suffocating unit capable of making offenses one-dimensional. For a while, I didn’t think we’d see an ACC representative in the CFP, but here we are. This Saturday, Miami will make its playoff debut in College Station.

Texas A&M (11-1):

The last time they played, it was on Black Friday against the Texas Longhorns on rivalry night, and I called that matchup a trap game from a mile away. Don’t get me wrong—the Aggies have been excellent this season and have mowed through opponents. A large part of that success has come from their offense and the playmaking ability of Marcel Reed, who has become one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Against Texas, however, they struggled to move the ball against one of the top defenses in the country—likely the best defense they’ve faced all season. Outside of that performance, this is one of the most balanced offenses in college football, boasting a top-40 rushing attack and a top-30 passing game. They run the ball just as effectively as they throw it and also feature one of the best offensive lines in the sport. Defensively, Texas A&M has been phenomenal and historically good on third down. Their road win over Notre Dame in South Bend was the moment I realized I needed to pay closer attention. They also own road wins over Missouri and LSU. Mike Elko has led this team to its best season since 1992, when they finished a perfect 12–0. This is a group that can compete for a national title if everything clicks. On Saturday, they welcome the lone ACC playoff team to Aggieland.

Miami X-Factor: C.J. Daniels

This Hurricanes offense has been explosive at times, and Daniels is a major reason why. Carson Beck has no shortage of weapons, and C.J. Daniels is just as vital to this attack as Malachi Toney. He creates matchup problems, especially against a Texas A&M secondary that likes to play physical. That plays into Daniels’ strengths—he can beat defenders with both speed and precise route-running. He’s not just a deep threat, either. Beck can look his way to move the chains, making Daniels a reliable option in crucial situations. Look for Miami to get him involved early.

Texas A&M X-Factor: Cashius Howell

The Aggies boast one of the best defenses in the country, and Cashius Howell is a name fans need to know moving forward. Howell is a game-wrecker off the edge. He doesn’t rely solely on sacks—he disrupts entire game plans. Miami wants to attack with timing and precision in the passing game, and Howell’s presence can throw off Beck’s rhythm. If he sets the tone early and gets consistent pressure, Miami will be forced into quicker throws and more conservative play-calling.

Final Thoughts:

We have two teams set to make their playoff debuts, and coincidentally, both handed Notre Dame a loss during the regular season. I’m fascinated by the quarterback matchup between Carson Beck and Marcel Reed. For Miami, the first key is neutralizing Cashius Howell. That starts with chipping him using a tight end or running back and sliding protection to his side. If Howell takes over, it will be a long day for the Hurricanes. Next, Daniels must take what the Aggies’ secondary gives him and win underneath—slants, digs, option routes—and convert on third down as a reliable safety valve. Finally, and most importantly, Miami must start fast. Playing from behind against this Texas A&M team is a recipe for disaster. On the other side, Texas A&M must dominate the trenches early. This game will hinge on physicality. Stop the run on early downs, collapse the pocket, and force Miami into long-yardage situations. Control the tempo with the running game and keep Miami’s offense on the sideline. Even if the runs aren’t explosive, they’ll force the Hurricanes to respect them. Lastly, limit Daniels on money downs—the Canes’ offensive rhythm depends on him. The winner of this game earns a date with the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second round.

Prediction:

Texas A&M 29, Miami 24

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