(Photo: Action Network)

Special Preview- NFL, Week 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

Buccaneers (6-3):

They were one of the hottest teams to begin the season, and Baker Mayfield was the early favorite to win MVP. But after that 5–1 start, they’ve cooled down considerably and have lost two of their last three games — one to the Detroit Lions on Monday night, and another just last week to the streaking New England Patriots. The one thing working in their favor is that they play in a division that isn’t particularly strong, and they remain the projected favorite to win the NFC South again. At the beginning of the season, this offense was clicking on all cylinders, averaging a little over 27 points per game and scoring with ease while Baker was off to a tremendous start. Recently, however, teams have clamped down, and I also think injuries are beginning to catch up with them. The Buccaneers have been decimated by the injury bug — key players like Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Mike Evans have all missed time. In their last three games, Tampa scored just nine points against Detroit, managed only one offensive touchdown against the Saints in New Orleans, and while they did put up 23 points against the Patriots in Week 10, they struggled badly on third and fourth down, failing to convert on 65% of their opportunities. I always emphasize the importance of third-down efficiency. Knowing the kind of coach Todd Bowles is, he will have his team regrouped and ready to go. Today, they’ll look to get back on track in Orchard Park.

Bills (6-3):

Let me put this in layman’s terms: they frustrate me beyond belief, and I’m running out of positive things to say. They started 4–0 and looked poised to run away with the AFC East — a division they’ve dominated since 2020. Then they lost two straight, hit their bye, returned with two wins (including one over the Kansas City Chiefs), and then last weekend happened. That was the worst I’ve seen them look in quite some time, and honestly, I thought we were past this stage with them. This is what happens when you spend a week celebrating the previous win and forget to show up focused the next. That is exactly what happened against the Miami Dolphins. A wise man told me last Sunday night: “Last week’s touchdowns don’t count in this week’s outcome.” If you walk into a game expecting the opponent to roll over, you pay for it — and they absolutely did. Someone asked me Monday morning what the identity of the Buffalo Bills is. I said I’d like to think they’re a balanced team when they feed James Cook. But in that shocking loss to Miami, they reverted to placing everything on Josh Allen’s shoulders and abandoned Cook. I’ve also been saying they should’ve made a move for another wide receiver at the trade deadline because this current group does not strike fear into opposing secondaries. While the situation may look grim, I won’t count the Bills out — because they still have Josh Allen, and he is capable of stringing wins together almost single-handedly. Today, they look to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Buccaneers X-Factor: Bucky Irving

He’s expected to play today, and as I said on The Prime on Tuesday, if the Bucs need a spark, he’s the guy to provide it. Irving brings agility, acceleration, and the ability to bounce runs outside — traits that can challenge this Bills defense. He’s also the quarterback’s best pressure-release option, capable of turning checkdowns into 10–15 yard gains, making the first defender miss, and helping Tampa stay ahead of the chains. Help is on the way, and he can provide it.

Bills X-Factor: Dawson Knox

Dalton Kincaid has become one of Josh’s favorite targets, but he’s out today with an injury. This is where Dawson steps in and becomes that safety valve for the Quarterback. The Buccaneers struggle against athletic Tight Ends and they are strong downhill which in turn exposes them in coverage and Dawson’s ability to find spots in the coverage is where he excels. He’s also one of Josh’s most trusted, yet targets weapons especially on quick timing routes. Dawson will also be a key in the red zone today against a Bucs defense that’s known to give up touchdowns to Tight Ends.

Final Thoughts:

Both teams lost last week — Tampa dropped a close game to New England, and the Bills completely unraveled against Miami. You can say this is a must-win for both sides, especially considering how they each lost. Both teams are dealing with injuries and defensive concerns. For Tampa: Continue attacking the Bills’ biggest weakness, their run defense. Use Bucky Irving as a dual-threat weapon — Buffalo struggles with shifty backs who can create in space. He should touch the ball 18–22 times. Pressure Josh Allen up the middle and contain him. Force checkdowns, spy him on key downs, and don’t let him extend plays and, shut down James Cook early. When the Bills can’t run, their offense becomes predictable. For Buffalo: Let Keon Coleman dictate matchups. If he gets going, Tampa will have to help with a safety, opening the middle of the field and making James Cook more dangerous. Attack Tampa’s linebackers in coverage using Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir and Stay patient with the run — even 3–4 yard gains on early downs matter. Someone is bouncing back today.

Prediction:

Bills 28, Buccaneers 23