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AFC Game Of The Week
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts (8-4):
This was a group that started 7–1 and became one of the biggest surprises in a season full of them in the NFL. At the beginning of the year, during their fast start, I mentioned how having a healthy Jonathan Taylor makes all the difference. Without question, he has been the best running back in football this year, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. I also remember mentioning that Daniel Jones playing in a smaller market has done tremendous wonders for him. Now, they’ve lost three of their last four games, and as I said on the radio, this recent stretch would tell us more about who they are. They struggled immensely against the Pittsburgh Steelers, turning the ball over six times. Even in the overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, they once had an 11-point lead before collapsing. But it was last week at home against the Houston Texans where they truly got punched in the mouth. There’s a clear theme in the Colts’ four losses compared to their wins, and I spotted it immediately. In each loss, Jonathan Taylor was held under 100 yards. In the eight victories, he’s been everything and then some. What concerns me is that they don’t have another direction to turn when their offensive focal point is contained—and that could become a significant problem come playoff time. Outside of that, I’ve been very happy for this team and what they’ve accomplished. This Sunday afternoon, they head to Florida for a divisional tilt.
Jaguars (8-4):
I had to pay closer attention to this team after their win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5, which brought them to 4–1. Then they hit a four-game stretch in which they lost three of their next four, including blowing a 19-point lead in Houston—where they also gave up 26 points in the fourth quarter of that collapse. Since that loss in Houston, they’ve won three consecutive games and are rolling. Watching the start of Liam Coen’s rookie season as a head coach, I noticed his philosophy right away: establish the running game and pair it with stingy defense. On the year, the Jaguars average 123 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th in the league. At the trade deadline, I highlighted two moves: Rashid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks and the Jaguars acquiring Jakobi Meyers from the Las Vegas Raiders. Jakobi has been a godsend for this offense. He and Trevor Lawrence clicked immediately, and he has become Trevor’s go-to target. In his first four games with Jacksonville, Meyers has two receiving touchdowns and has been extremely sure-handed, with zero drops so far (and yes, I probably just jinxed it). This has been a season full of surprises, and we can add the Jaguars to the list of teams few expected to be sitting with a winning record at this point. On Sunday, they return home for another divisional showdown against the Indianapolis Colts.
Colts X-Factor: DeForest Buckner
This is still the heartbeat and emotional leader of the Indianapolis defense. I often say one guy can enter a defensive scheme and alter the entire pass rush, and DeForest Buckner fits that mold. He has the quickness and relentless motor to generate pressure from the interior of the defensive line. Let’s also focus on his impact on the teammates around him. DeForest does much of the dirty work, which frees Laiatu Latu to get more one-on-one opportunities and allows the blitzes to get home faster. He’s also productive against the run, and if he can plug up the A and B gaps, Jacksonville’s offense will be significantly stifled.
Jaguars X-Factor: Josh Hines-Allen
I could watch this guy every week—that’s how fun he is. This matchup has the makings of a game where Josh becomes the ultimate difference-maker. He’s the one defender who can wreck the Colts’ entire offensive plan. If he collapses the edge and forces Indy into long-yardage situations, it neutralizes the ground attack and puts more pressure on Daniel Jones to carry the offense. If he’s disruptive early, the Colts will be forced to double-team and chip him on nearly every snap.
Final Thoughts:
Who, in their right mind, thought both of these teams would have eight wins entering Week 14—and that they’d be fighting for first place in the AFC South? I’ll answer for myself: definitely not me. Yet here we are, with a big-time divisional matchup ahead. Jacksonville enters winners of three straight, while the Colts are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. For the Colts, limiting Jacksonville’s quick passing game will be key. The Indy secondary must hold its own long enough for the pass rush to get home and rattle Trevor Lawrence. Force him to hold the ball longer than he wants. Offensively, the Colts’ line must rise to the challenge against one of the league’s best defensive fronts. The trio of Hines-Allen, Arik Armstead, and Travon Walker can create chaos. Indianapolis must also get back to its identity: controlling the clock to relieve its defense. For Jacksonville, it starts with limiting Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ running game. The Jags are the best run defense in the league, and they’ll need to prove it against the best back in the business. Next, they must pressure Daniel Jones and keep him uncomfortable—especially if they’ve already bottled up the ground game. Finally, they need to play mistake-free football to give their offense the best chance to win.
