(Photo: Cosm)
AFC Championship
(2) New England Patriots at (1) Denver Broncos
Patriots (16-3):
I know for a fact the Tennessee Titans are kicking themselves, and I say that because they decided to let Mike Vrabel go after an appearance in the AFC Championship in 2019 and several successful seasons in Nashville. The minute he was let go, I immediately said to myself that he would end up where he won three Super Bowl titles as a player — it wasn’t a matter of if, but when. Jerod Mayo was named head coach after Bill Belichick left Foxboro, but he lasted only one season. The team then hired Vrabel, and the rest is history. This football team won four games all of last season and finished at the bottom of the division they ran for so many years. It’s a completely different story this year, and I couldn’t be more proud of this group. I also mentioned last spring that I felt the Patriots had the best offseason of any team in the league, filling key needs by signing Stefon Diggs, Milton Williams, and Carlton Davis III, then drafting Will Campbell with the fourth overall pick. This leads me back to something I’ve been saying for years: if you want your quarterback to succeed, put pieces around him — and they’ve done exactly that. As I watched Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans, I was reminded of the 2003 AFC Championship when the Patriots faced the Indianapolis Colts. Back then, they intercepted a prime Peyton Manning three times. This past Sunday, they imposed their will on Houston’s offense and intercepted C.J. Stroud four times. This defense is clearly clicking at the right time. They punished the Chargers and sacked Justin Herbert six times, and then followed it up by creating turnovers against Houston in the Divisional Round. This Sunday, the Patriots will be looking for their first Super Bowl appearance since the 2018 season. To get there, they’ll have to go through the top seed in the AFC.
Broncos (15-3):
It’s never going to be pretty, and the performance may not always look great, but they got the job done — and it was a tall task against a Buffalo Bills team loaded with experience. They jumped out to a ten-point lead, and the second half turned into an entertaining battle. I said this on The Prime with David Onpoint this past Tuesday, and I’ll say it again: I didn’t necessarily love the way they looked on Saturday. Maybe it was rust from not playing football in nearly two weeks, which is common for teams coming off a first-round bye. This the same team that won its first AFC West division title since 2015 — which also happens to be the last time they won a playoff game and went on to win Super Bowl 50 against the Carolina Panthers. The Broncos’ offense sputtered at times against a Buffalo defense that has been inconsistent all season, especially against the run, and Denver couldn’t get its ground attack going at all. Here’s the thing, though: this team has lived on the edge all season and had to do it once again. During the regular season, they posted an 11–2 record in one-score games. I’ve been critical of Bo Nix throughout the season — and rightfully so, because you never quite know which version will show up week to week — but when his team needed him to make big-time throws, he delivered. Unfortunately, right after Saturday’s overtime win, news broke that Nix will miss the remainder of the playoffs with a broken ankle, which is absolutely devastating. The Broncos will now welcome the AFC East champions and second seed to Mile High City with a trip to Super Bowl LX on the line.
Patriots X-Factor: Milton Williams
When the Patriots signed him, I was thrilled. Milton was a key piece of an Eagles defense that was among the league’s best and won the Super Bowl last year, and he brings experience along with a deep understanding of what it takes to play in big games. Williams can apply pressure from the interior of the defensive line, which can completely wreck Denver’s offensive game plan. This Broncos offense wants to stay on schedule and avoid obvious passing downs, and interior pressure is much tougher to handle than edge pressure. Williams is the type of player who commands double teams, and because of that, everyone else benefits. If he wins his battles early, the Patriots defense can unleash more exotic looks in long-yardage situations.
Broncos X-Factor: Marvin Mims Jr.
The Broncos have talent on offense, but none of it is as dynamic as Marvin Mims Jr. — and that’s a fact. One touch from him can instantly flip momentum, whether it’s on jet sweeps, screen passes, or kick returns, where he’s also a major special teams threat. He’s the type of player who can turn a quiet drive into a spark for the entire team — or even a touchdown. Mims will also serve as a safety valve for Jarrett Stidham, who steps in for the injured Nix. Even when he’s not targeted, Mims forces defensive discipline by pulling safeties deeper and widening lanes underneath. If he hits just one big play, it could change the entire trajectory of Denver’s offense.
Final Thoughts:
I remember when these two teams met in the AFC Championship ten years ago, back in 2016, with a trip to Super Bowl 50 on the line. That game also marked the final meeting between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Ten years later, these two franchises will once again battle for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl — and coincidentally, just like in 2016, this year’s Super Bowl will be played in Santa Clara, California. Jarrett Stidham will start at quarterback for the Broncos and face a Patriots defense that has been firing on all cylinders this postseason. The first thing I’ll be watching is the trench battle. If Milton Williams can do damage up front, Denver’s offense will shrink. But if the Broncos’ offensive line holds up, it will keep them on schedule all game. The Patriots must continue to run the ball, sustain long drives, and put the game in Stidham’s hands. Force him to beat you. They also have to contain Mims — no busted lanes, no lazy angles, and no special teams breakdowns. Denver can’t win this game playing slow or from behind. They must generate explosives, survive the Patriots’ interior pressure, and attack with short passes and screens. Defensively, the pass rush has to get home against Drake Maye and set the tone. So… who’s punching the first ticket to Levi’s Stadium?
