(Photo: New England Football Journal)
AFC Divisional Playoff
(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots
Texans (13-5):
They just continue to impress me, and the winning streak now stands at ten games. As I was watching that game in Pittsburgh on Monday night, they simply imposed their will and held a very up-and-down Steelers offense throughout the regular season to six points (two field goals). What they did defensively wasn’t a shock to me because that unit has been the backbone of this entire football team all season long. I even said they could single-handedly win a playoff game with that side of the football alone. Now, here’s where I wasn’t happy with them: the offense. C.J. Stroud turned the ball over three times, and they looked flat at times during the game. That said, all they really needed to do was manage the game, push the ball up the field, and move the chains — the defense handled the rest. With the win on Monday night in Pittsburgh, the Houston Texans finally won their first road playoff game in their 24-year history. This is by far DeMeco Ryans’ best coaching job since becoming the head coach of the team he once played for, and I say that because the odds were stacked against this group at one point. Not many teams make the playoffs — or go on the type of winning streak they did — after an 0–3 start. I seriously thought they were going to win the AFC South with the run they were on, but the Jacksonville Jaguars outlasted them and held on to capture the division title. This defense is championship-caliber, if I’ve ever seen one, and will be tough as long as they remain intact. This Sunday, they head to Foxboro, Massachusetts, for a divisional playoff showdown with the AFC East champions.
Patriots (15-3):
It felt like old times again on Sunday night, didn’t it? The Patriots entered the postseason as winners of the AFC East, earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, and Gillette Stadium had that playoff feel once again — something it hasn’t experienced in quite some time. The last time a playoff game was played at Gillette Stadium, they hosted the Tennessee Titans, and Derrick Henry had a field day against a strong New England defense. That was also the game where Tom Brady threw a pick-six, the Titans pulled the upset, and Brady played his final game in a Patriots uniform. Now let’s look at the current team. I love everything about this group because they are a true reflection of their head coach, Mike Vrabel. I mentioned last week prior to their Wild Card game how hands-on he is and how he’s able to relate to his players because he understands the ups and downs they go through. As for the game itself, I loved what I saw from the Patriots on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. Drake Maye and the offense did just enough, and the defense handled the rest by attacking the Chargers with a stingy pass rush, sacking Justin Herbert six times. In other words, they bullied the Chargers until they waved the white flag. I can’t wait to see what Drake Maye becomes moving forward — he’s yet to scratch the surface. The Patriots welcome the Texans to town on Sunday afternoon.
Texans X-Factor: Jalen Pitre
This Houston defense is loaded with playmakers, and Pitre is one of them. On Sunday, the Texans will face a New England offense that thrives on motion, option routes, and attacking the middle of the field. Jalen just so happens to be Houston’s most versatile defender. He can play safety, defend slot receivers, and drop back into coverage to cover ground. He also has a knack for jumping routes, forcing fumbles, and being in the right spot at the right time. Pitre is strong against the run and plays downhill, which can force the Patriots into long-yardage situations — playing right into the hands of the Texans’ pass rush.
Patriots X-Factor: Rhamondre Stevenson
Without question, this is the one player who can either make or break the New England offense in this game. Houston’s defense will be looking to tee off with its front four, and they’re at their best when they can unleash pressure and force obvious passing downs. If the Patriots can feed Rhamondre early and often, it allows the offense to remain balanced, neutralizes the Texans’ defensive line, and helps control the clock with Stroud and the Texans’ offense on the sideline. New England can also use Stevenson out of the backfield as a receiver to create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. He’s a physical tone-setter who runs north-south and wins in short-yardage situations.
Final Thoughts:
After this game, we’ll have an AFC Championship matchup to look ahead to. The Patriots are seeking their first conference title game appearance since the 2018 season, while the Texans are aiming for their first-ever trip to the AFC Championship Game. These teams met during the 2024 season, and the Texans handled the Patriots fairly comfortably. Now, with a divisional playoff setting, this marks the third playoff meeting between the two. I’ll be watching how the Patriots handle the pre-snap movement, late rotations, and speed of Houston’s defense. I’ll also be paying close attention to the Texans’ passing attack against the Patriots’ defensive backs and whether they can create separation consistently. For Houston, it starts with limiting New England’s running game. Shut Stevenson down on first and second down and force Maye and the passing attack to beat you. Control the pace offensively. New England will want to turn this into a methodical, grind-it-out game, so the Texans need early, efficient drives to avoid letting the Patriots dictate tempo and to stay ahead of the chains. On the Patriots’ side, discipline is key. They must handle Houston’s disguises, attack the middle of the field with purpose, and most importantly, keep Drake Maye protected at all costs. Who will be one win away from the Super Bowl?
