(Photo: Action Network)
AFC Game Of The Week
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Bills (7-4):
I just need to clarify something right away: their loss in Houston last Thursday night was not on the defense. I know the defense has been the topic of conversation all season—and not in a good way. I’ll be the first to admit they’ve struggled mightily this year, especially against the run. In fact, last week against the Texans was the best game the Bills’ defense has played all year. I saw them make key stops, get off the field on third down—which is always a win—and most importantly, give the offense chances. Now, let’s point the finger where it belongs: the offense. They had opportunity after opportunity to score, but kept settling for field goals. This is why I always say: when you’re in the red zone, you have to come away with six, because three doesn’t always equate to victories. Just look at what happened. Josh Allen threw two interceptions, but in his defense, he didn’t have much time to work with. The offensive line was beaten like a drum and allowed eight sacks (yes, eight). This is not the same Bills team that started 4–0. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right since the loss to the New England Patriots. Last week was a game they needed badly, and from here on out, they can’t afford to drop any more—especially with how well New England has played in the AFC East. On Sunday, the Bills look to get back in the win column in Pittsburgh.
Steelers (6-5):
The Steelers are exactly where I expected them to be at this point of the season. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from them—they’ve been inconsistent. I’ve watched so much of this team under Mike Tomlin, and this is the first time I can honestly say they don’t look like a typical “Tomlin team.” They aren’t as physical as we’re accustomed to seeing, they still can’t run the football (a problem that predates the post–Roethlisberger era), and the defense hasn’t been particularly strong outside of T.J. Watt. Speaking of Watt—if Myles Garrett weren’t having the season he’s having in Cleveland, T.J. would be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s the Steelers’ best player and sometimes feels like the only one on that defense playing with consistent urgency. One troubling trend I’ve noticed is how susceptible the Steelers have become to physical, downhill rushing attacks—especially when opponents dictate tempo and control the line of scrimmage. It hurts to say this considering how historically strong Pittsburgh’s defense has been. Despite everything, they’re still tied for first in the AFC North with the Baltimore Ravens, who have won five straight. The Steelers return home Sunday for a showdown with Buffalo.
Bills X-Factor: James Cook
I cannot stress this enough: Let James Cook—pun absolutely intended. When the Bills feed him, good things happen. He alleviates pressure off Josh Allen, and the offense becomes balanced. The Bills are at their best when Cook is productive. He gives them a dependable ground threat that controls tempo, chews clock, and keeps the offense on schedule.
Steelers X-Factor: Nick Herbig
The Steelers’ defense has struggled this year, but Herbig has been one of their more productive front-seven players. He’s emerged as a consistent pass rusher and benefits from the attention drawn by T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. He can blitz from everywhere—off the edge, as an off-ball linebacker, or on delayed blitzes—which can confuse Buffalo’s offensive line.
Final Thoughts:
This is a big-time AFC matchup. The Bills sit three games behind the Patriots in the AFC East, and the Steelers are tied with the Ravens for first in the AFC North. I’m not sure either team is a lock for postseason football in January. Aaron Rodgers is expected to return for this game after missing last week with a wrist injury. For Buffalo, the question is simple: Which version of the offense shows up? Key No. 1: Get James Cook going early. Running the ball keeps Pittsburgh’s pass rush off balance, and Cook can exploit their over-pursuit tendencies. Key No. 2: Know where T.J. Watt is at all times and neutralize him. Quick passes to Khalil Shakir and screen designs are ideal—they’re the best way to slow down a ferocious pass rush and prevent defenders from getting comfortable. Key No. 3: Protect the football. Josh Allen must minimize the hero ball. If he’s careless, the Steelers will get short fields—and they thrive on those opportunities. If I’m Pittsburgh, I’m taking a page out of Houston’s playbook: apply relentless pressure. Use simulated pressures to create confusion and force Allen to throw off his back foot. In short, make the Bills’ offense one-dimensional. If Allen is under duress, the Bills become far less efficient. Eliminate James Cook, and Buffalo’s offense becomes much easier to defend. And above all—keep Josh Allen in the pocket. Don’t let him extend plays with his legs. It’s a must-win game for both teams.
