(Photo: The New York Times)

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Ravens:

I’m still trying to get a feel for what I want to say about them. Okay—I think I have it. The Super Bowl window has officially closed, and it pains me to say that because I think highly of them. In 2023, they won the AFC North with ease, and Lamar Jackson earned his second MVP. Then last season, they signed Derrick Henry, who had a renaissance year. They won the division for the second straight season, even after the Pittsburgh Steelers held first place and completely collapsed. Since Lamar entered the league, 2024 was the best I’ve ever seen him look. He was far more comfortable in the pocket compared to his early years, and you now see a quarterback with better command of the offense. I also think the presence of King Henry elevated his game. As a defender, you’re stuck picking your poison—who do you focus on stopping more? You can’t overcommit to either guy, and that’s the beauty of their offense if you understand the point I’m trying to make. Early last season, I had concerns about their defense. I didn’t see the same intensity I’ve come to expect from watching them over the years. But they started to pick it up as the regular season came to an end. If you watched the Ravens at all last season, good things happened when they did what? Fed the big fella—Derrick Henry. Everything else fell into place. The formula was simple: give him the ball 21–26 times, and you’re primed for a win. Anything less than that, and you fall short. They have moments where they look like one of the best in the league and true contenders in the AFC. Then, the next week, they’ll play down to their competition—and I’m giving them the side-eye. Tonight, they begin their season where it ended almost eight months ago.

Bills:

They’ve established themselves as the best team in the AFC East and consistently handle business in the regular season—no question. Last season, I felt the odds were stacked against them after losing both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, their top two receivers the year before. There were moments where I compared them to the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs. Let me explain. Remember when the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill, and everyone started writing them off? I said the same thing last year that I said in 2022: as long as the quarterback is under center, they have a chance. And that couldn’t be more accurate with Josh Allen. Now, I know last season’s MVP debate got people fired up. But in my eyes, the right guy won. What’s the name of the award again? Most Valuable Player. And no one meant more to their team than Josh did in Orchard Park. Without him, they don’t win the games they did, don’t win the division again, and don’t clinch the 2-seed in the AFC. They’ve been great in the regular season—but when will it translate to the postseason, where it really matters? The Bills have been eliminated from the playoffs in four of the last five seasons by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I’ve seen people call them the “AFC’s version of the Cowboys,” and that made me chuckle—but I can’t say I disagree. They’ll win the division again this year, but the questions will keep coming. And they open their season tonight… against a familiar opponent.

Ravens X-Factor: Rashod Bateman

I think Rashod steps up in a big way this year, but more so tonight. If you watched the Bills last year, their defensive front was one of the best in the league, but they struggled in the back end which is the secondary and if you’re the Ravens offense, you test that out to see if it’s still their vulnerable area. Rashod has become another weapon at Lamar’s disposal. Whether it’s a screen pass, a dump off over the middle and even on third down, he’s become that guy that wants the ball.

Bills X-Factor: Terrel Bernard

This is the “Swiss Army knife” of the Buffalo defense. I remember Cole Johnson asking me last season what his importance was to the team, and I said he’s the glue. He does a little bit of everything. Need him to play as a spy? Check. Send him on a blitz? No problem. Drop back in coverage? He’s got it. Tackle in open space? Absolutely. This defense is just more productive when Terrel is on the field—his presence is felt and the impact he has shows, yet speaks volumes.

Final Thoughts:

These two teams faced each other twice last season. The first game was in Baltimore, where the Ravens ran the ball relentlessly until the Bills couldn’t take it anymore—it wore them down. The second was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, where Buffalo escaped with a two-point win after Mark Andrews dropped a pass that would’ve tied the game. That was, hands down, the best game I previewed and watched all season. And months later, we get the rematch in Week 1. In that playoff game, Josh Allen was more of a game manager. The Bills leaned on their ground game and gave Baltimore a taste of its own medicine by playing physical football. On the other side, one of the big reasons Baltimore lost? They only gave Derrick Henry the ball 16 times—and that’s just not going to cut it. The Ravens need to feed him early and often, making it an ugly, physical game from the start. I think it’ll come down to which quarterback can be contained more consistently—because both Lamar and Josh can hurt you with their legs. If I’m Baltimore, Josh will be a pocket passer, so I’d contain and set those edges because if you keep him contained and force him to hold the ball longer than he wants, he will make a mistake. This should be just as close as the game in January and if it’s anything as what we saw in the divisional round, we will be in for a treat. While Baltimore will be out for revenge, I see Buffalo doing just enough to edge out another victory on Sunday Night Football.

Prediction:

Bills 28, Ravens 24